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The fair-value model

Tissue prices a match in two phases:
  1. Freeze. At kickoff, TxLINE’s opening de-vigged consensus odds set the base scoring intensities for both teams. The free totals-only feed uses a neutral team split; when 1X2 odds are also present, they solve the relative scoring share.
  2. Reprice. As the match progresses, Tissue reprices the remainder of the match using a Poisson goals model with Dixon-Coles low-score dependence, conditioned on verified current score, remaining playing time, and red cards.
This fair value is compared against TxLINE’s live StablePrice consensus. When the two diverge by more than strategy.edge_threshold_bps (after de-vigging), and every risk gate clears, Tissue publishes a two-sided quote.
TxLINE’s StablePrice is a single de-margined consensus stream, not per-bookmaker odds. This was verified directly against captured real data and TxLINE’s current live docs — it shapes what kind of adverse-selection signal is honestly possible (see Informed-Flow, below).

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The five regimes

Each regime is a flagged, individually toggleable heuristic addressing one specific real-world trading question. All five are neutralized in the Strategy Arena’s Baseline agent and can be isolated individually via the regime ablation matrix.

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The discipline engine

Risk gates are the only module authorized to green-light execution. They check, in order:
  • Feed-gap halt — the feed went quiet longer than tolerance; every open intent is cancelled
  • Unexplained-movement halt — odds moved with no feed cause Tissue can see
  • Informed-flow halt — this market’s move velocity is anomalous against its own trailing distribution
  • Model-divergence band — Tissue’s own price disagrees with the market by more than a sanity band allows (protects against Tissue’s own model failure, not the market’s)
  • Drawdown kill — realized drawdown crosses a threshold; operator-restart-only, never auto-resumes
  • Portfolio-level caps — the same exposure and drawdown checks, aggregated across every fixture the desk is concurrently running (the World Cup schedule stages multiple knockout ties in parallel; a per-fixture-only cap would multiply uncapped total risk by fixture count)
  • Proof-failure-rate circuit breaker — an aggregate check distinct from a single rejected message: if the rate of recent source-proof failures crosses a threshold, the whole desk halts, because that signals a degraded proof service, not one bad message
Unexplained-movement and informed-flow are the two halts that exist specifically because the market moved. Tissue’s rule is simple and mechanical: it will not quote against information it doesn’t have, even when doing so looks like leaving edge on the table.

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Network consistency

See Architecture → Network consistency.

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Signed decisions and receipts

Every decision record carries:
  • A hash linking it to every prior decision (H(prevHash ‖ canonical(record)))
  • An Ed25519 signature over that hash, from the same Solana keypair used for on-chain anchoring
  • A Merkle inclusion proof, on request, against a specific anchored checkpoint root
See Verifiability & Audit Trail for exactly how to check any of this independently.